Which central banks are most likely to deliver surprises?

Central banks across Emerging Asia typically do a poor job at flagging up their decisions in advance, which often leads to investors being wrong-footed. Since the start of 2010, under half of interest rate changes (either hikes or cuts) in Emerging Asia were correctly predicted by the consensus. In this Weekly, we outline which central banks are the least predictable, explain why, and look ahead to where we might see the next surprise.