Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italy GDP (Q4, Breakdown) The first breakdown of Italy’s GDP in Q4 showed that the slowdown in growth was driven by household spending. This is perhaps unsurprising given that real wages are falling, and might also explain the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s trade deficit signals a revival of past vulnerabilities The sharp widening of Turkey’s trade deficit in the last few months is a reflection of very strong domestic demand, which has sucked in imports. But the deficit is now approaching levels that, in the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Gradual slowdown ahead GDP growth across Emerging Asia edged down in the final quarter of last year and is likely to ease further over the coming year. While in most cases the slowdown should be relatively gradual, Hong... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly There goes Australia’s interest rate premium Our relative views on monetary policy in the US and Australia suggest that US 10-year bond yields will rise further above Australian yields this year. While this would be rare, what’s more unusual is... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains in good shape The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit remained unchanged in February, and suggests that the emerging world’s manufacturing sector continues to grow at a robust rate. However, this masks regional... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Weak inflation supports patient, prudent approach With the economy still performing well and the euro off the boil, we expect the ECB to remove the loosening bias from its forward guidance when it meets on 8th March. But the persistent weakness of... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Agriculturals bucked the trend Commodity prices fell sharply in the wake of the sell-off in global equity markets in late-January, but have recovered much of the lost ground. The key sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI are now close to... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI once again held up close to a seven-year high in February, which sits well with our view that 2018 will be another strong year for global growth. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update A month to forget for Swedish krona and Swiss shares While all of the Nordic currencies and the Swiss franc depreciated against the dollar in February, weak Swedish inflation data and dovish comments from the Riksbank meant that the drop in the krona... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index in February to a 13-year high suggests that activity growth is set to pick up following a soft start to the year. On past form, the index is consistent with... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls boosted by unwinding of weather distortion The strength of most labour market indicators suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in February. That should have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The weaker-than-expected increase in Brazilian GDP in Q4 was due in large part to a sizeable drag from net trade. This was partly due to the unwinding of an earlier jump in agricultural exports, but... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0 unlikely to step up to the economic challenge President Putin’s State of the Nation address provided the first signs of his economic goals for his next term. On the face of it, it looks like Putin promised looser fiscal policy, but we think there... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate held steady in January and the number of unemployed people only edged down, surveys suggest that the labour market recovery should regain momentum. But the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
