Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A marked divergence in the fortunes of businesses While rising profits and confidence are boosting sentiment amongst Australian businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new government has continued to weigh on business confidence... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The surge in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 130.8 in February, from 124.3, underlines that household sentiment has not been knocked by the recent bout of stock... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to tighten further than previously expected Central banks in the major advanced economies are now moving in the same direction, but they are doing so at very different speeds. The Fed is tightening policy in earnest, with six rate hikes likely... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher US interest rates mean for the Gulf? The Gulf’s dollar pegs mean that further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve will be imported into the region, keeping a lid on credit growth and pushing up government borrowing costs. This is... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) The Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indices painted contrasting pictures in December. Annual growth on the Case-Shiller index rose to 6.3%, the highest level since May 2014. But the FHFA reported a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Fed Chair Powell Testimony The sharp fall in durable goods orders in January wasn’t quite as bad as it looks, as it was mainly driven by a plunge in both defence and commercial aircraft orders. But the details still suggest... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Gloss comes off the EM recovery Events over the past month suggested that the Emerging Market (EM) recovery might not be as strong and stable as some seem to think. Economic data for the end of last year pointed to slightly softer... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil demand growth to remain strong in 2018 Global oil demand looks set to grow strongly again this year driven by accelerating economic growth in the US, Europe and India. However, a sharp slowdown in China’s economic growth will limit the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s decline in German inflation reflected falls in the volatile food and energy components. But the still subdued rate of core inflation will encourage the ECB to take a cautious approach to... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Looser fiscal policy spells more trouble for Treasuries The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy continued to grow strongly in early 2018, but that inflation expectations remain subdued. This supports our view that the... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole may strengthen to more than 5.5% y/y in Q1. The Hungarian and Polish... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jan.) The latest trade data for India and China were a mixed bag. On the one hand, China’s gold imports bounced back, pointing to strong demand ahead of the New Year holiday. On the other hand, India’s... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
