UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) January’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And consumers still appear confident enough to borrow to smooth their... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Easing in real pay squeeze to pave the way for pick-up in spending growth While household spending growth slowed markedly in 2017, the outlook for 2018 and beyond looks brighter. Indeed, the worst of the real pay squeeze appears to have passed. Following a peak of 3.1% in... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Net lending to commercial property fell in January. But the underlying picture was a little more positive than the headline suggests. Not only was January’s fall small in comparison to the upward... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) & Money and Credit (Jan.) February’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has lost some momentum in Q1. But the details of the survey were more encouraging, and there is little sign in the latest money and credit figures... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending and Nationwide House Prices Mortgage approvals bounced back in January, reversing the drop in activity seen in the immediate aftermath of November’s rate hike. But with the Nationwide measure of house price inflation at a six... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan unlikely to buy foreign bonds An advisor to PM Abe has suggested that the Bank of Japan should buy foreign bonds. However, economic conditions are far too buoyant at the moment for policymakers to take such a radical step. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs diverge again China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI edged higher in February, but the official survey reading dropped sharply. The trends in the PMIs are broadly consistent with the recent dip in metals prices. We... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4, breakdown) The first breakdown of Spanish GDP showed encouragingly broad-based growth in Q4 despite the effects of the political crisis in Catalonia. Meanwhile, the surveys paint a positive picture of the... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI survey – which jumped to 50.8 in February – supports our view that the economy is gaining momentum. Nigerian surveys released yesterday were less positive. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The Swiss economy ended 2017 on a fairly strong note and the surveys paint a positive picture for 2018. But with inflation set to remain subdued, we think that the SNB will wait until 2020 to raise... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will politics put an end to the rally in Brazil’s equities? Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) February’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs point to continued strong growth. But this only seems to be causing underlying inflationary pressure to build in Sweden. 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe fell across the region, but are still consistent with strong industrial activity in Central Europe. And while the sharp drop in the Russian survey... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) The private capital expenditure survey for the fourth quarter was a bit weaker than widely expected, but the key point is that investment is no longer the Achilles heel of the economy as firms are... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are the good times over for Asian equities? Asian equities have recovered much of their losses over the second half of this month but a sustained rebound is unlikely. We expect most stock markets to only edge higher over the rest of the year. 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Interest rate tightening cycle likely to be cut short The Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again this year, most likely at the April policy meeting. In contrast to the consensus, we don’t see a series of further rate hikes beyond this. NAFTA’s... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
