Commodities Update US infrastructure plan won’t lift commodities demand We are sceptical that President Trump’s infrastructure plan will be approved by Congress. What’s more, even if congressional approval is forthcoming, the reliance on state and local governments and... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation about to take off? One explanation for the recent slump in equity and bond prices is that investors have become concerned that inflation is about to take off, forcing central bankers to tighten policy more rapidly than... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Dec.) House price growth was slow and steady last year, with London seeing the most notable slowdown. With prices in the capital so high, we think London will continue to underperform. 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) Despite holding steady in January, we continue to think that CPI inflation will gradually drift downwards over the course of 2018. However, we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jan.) While January’s £5bn total was particularly strong for the time of year, it is unlikely to mark the start of a renewed upward trend. Highlighting the lack of liquidity in the market, much of the... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Bank lending has continued to slow and Japanese banks are no longer gaining market share in the cross-border lending market. However, one reason is that non-financial firms are increasingly turning to... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Valuations of US equities still look high after correction 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) There was a significant rise in OPEC’s forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018, reflecting recent strong growth in the US. However, we still think that the cartel is underestimating growth in output... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The slight easing of consumer price inflation in January was due to a decline in food and fuel inflation. Core inflation remained elevated and is set to rise further. We remain comfortable with our... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria to remain a star performer The outlook for Austria is bright. Policies announced by the new Government should help to support consumer spending and investment. And while we expect export growth to weaken next year, Austria... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Chinese banks issued a record amount of new loans last month. But that happens at the start of almost every year. While the eye-popping new loan numbers will grab the headlines, the more important... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss and Danish Consumer Prices (Jan.) Following January’s decline, there is little chance that Swiss inflation will rise much in the next few months. And later in the year, inflation is likely to drop back as exchange rate effects unwind. 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Policy to remain loose under new BoJ leadership Governor Kuroda looks likely to be reappointed as Bank of Japan Governor when his current term ends in April. It is still unclear who his two deputies will be, but the main candidates are mostly in... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
