Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB unlikely to let franc’s rise be sustained The franc’s downward trend went into reverse last month and turbulence in global financial markets has since threatened to push it up further. In the event of a sustained rout in equity markets, the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much longer will the consumer squeeze last? 2017 was a fairly dismal year for consumers. With prices rising more quickly than wages, consumer spending growth has halved since 2016. But is the worst of the squeeze now behind us, or is there... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jan.) China’s foreign exchange reserves data suggest that the People’s Bank has not been directly intervening to limit the renminbi’s recent gains against the dollar. That partly reflects the fact that the... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s budget deficit to narrow further The Egyptian government has finally made inroads into its large budget deficit and we expect the shortfall to narrow further over the coming years. But the public finances remain in a poor state and... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Consensus underestimating scope for Icelandic rate rises As the recent rise in inflation has been due to temporary exchange rate effects, it was little surprise that the Central Bank of Iceland left policy unchanged today. But with further rises in... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI turns more hawkish The RBI’s decision to hold its repo rate at 6.00% today came as no surprise but it sounded notably more hawkish in the policy statement. This supports our non-consensus view that rate hikes are likely... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation cooled to 2.2% on the Halifax index. And with interest rates starting to rise and real wages still falling, we think house price growth will hold at this level throughout 2018. 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell to its lowest level in eight years in 2017. Weak investment demand accounted for most of the decline. With demand from India and China likely to remain subdued and Fed... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the market moves affect the economy? The slump in equity markets would have to go a lot further to cause economic growth to slow significantly. That may yet happen, but for now prospects for global growth still look fairly bright. 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation on the rise The usual pattern around Chinese New Year is for inflation to rise sharply either in January or February and fall in the other month. This year, we think inflation will have picked up in both. And... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy loses some pace at the start of 2018 The survey evidence released so far paints a pretty downbeat picture for growth at the start of the year. Indeed, falls in the manufacturing, construction and services sector PMI left the all-sector... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities caught up in the wider sell-off The latest falls in commodity prices have more to do with risk aversion than any deterioration in underlying demand and supply fundamentals. That said, we had always expected commodity prices to fall... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to $3.2bn in December, from $2.7bn, illustrates that Canada is still struggling to benefit from the broad acceleration in global economic growth. The stagnation in... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) Despite the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $53.1bn in December, from $50.4bn, a continued acceleration in real export growth should ensure that net trade is, at worst, neutral... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Calling time on the recovery in Dublin office rents The last five years have seen prime office rents in Dublin fully recover from their post-crisis lows. But we now think that a lower natural rate of vacancy and growing pipeline will see rents start to... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
