Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI dips but from high levels The latest EM aggregate PMI from Markit dipped in January but nonetheless remains consistent with solid rates of output growth in most regions. The dip in the headline figure was driven by a fall back... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Dollar weakness bolsters commodities Commodity prices trended higher in January, with all the major sub-sectors of the S&P GSCI recording gains. Energy led the way, rising by 4.5% m/m. Dollar weakness was the main driver of the rally in... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Global forces push exchange rates and bond yields up Following developments in other developed economies this year, Nordic and Swiss currencies have appreciated while equity prices and bond yields have risen. Norway’s currency has outperformed, largely... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Markit’s global manufacturing PMI stayed closed to a seven-year high in January, suggesting that the momentum of the world economy carried over into the New Year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in January left it well above historical averages and consistent with GDP growth of over 4% annualised. With domestic demand receiving a boost from tax... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is French inflation about to take off? The strength of France’s economic recovery and improving conditions in the labour market suggest that core inflation will soon start to rise from its current depressed levels. But recent reforms will... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Have US Treasuries now factored in enough Fed tightening? 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hikes, but likely to pause next month The statement accompanying today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the policy interest rate was hiked by 25bp – suggests that the Council will hold fire at its next meeting on 29th March. Even so, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rental investors beginning to sell up? A decline in the stock of rental homes may simply be noise. But it may also be an early sign that rental investors are taking advantage of high prices and low inventory to sell up. If so, and if it... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2017) Russian annual GDP data for 2017, which showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a slowdown in growth to 1.0% y/y in Q4, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. However, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland to raise rates later this year Inflation pressures seem to be rising faster than we had expected. As a result, we now see the Central Bank of Iceland raising interest rates this year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Barcelona office rents defy political uncertainty The political crisis in Catalonia has not prevented prime office rents in Barcelona from rising in Q4. We see prime rents rising again in both Barcelona and Madrid this year and next, though the... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The fall in the PMI in January suggests that manufacturing growth slowed a little at the start of the year. But the big picture is that the sector is still performing well by recent standards. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China PMIs point to a stable January China’s unofficial and official manufacturing PMIs diverged a little in January but both imply that activity held up relatively well. That said, they were not sufficiently strong to explain the gains... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) The Nationwide measure of house price inflation edged up to 3.2% in January. But with prices high and the activity data weakening, there are few reasons to expect accelerating house price growth in... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
