Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The continued recovery of South Africa’s PMI – which rose to 49.9 in January – supports our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update FY18/19 budget: fiscal deficit targets relaxed The finance ministry faced a tricky balancing act in today’s budget announcement for FY18/19 as it aimed to shore up popular support ahead of a busy 18 months of elections while also demonstrating... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs generally point to strong growth. But only in Sweden do we expect this to feed through to significant and sustained inflation pressure. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January’s PMIs for Emerging Europe provide further evidence that the region’s economies made a strong start to the year. The surveys indicate that Russia’s economic recovery should resume over the... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A slump in demand for oil from refineries and another increase in production combined to boost US crude inventories last week for the first time since mid-November. At least part of the recent surge... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it make sense to rotate into equities out of bonds? This month’s Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Fund Manager Survey revealed that respondents were the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014. This is not... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The RICS Construction Survey for the fourth quarter highlighted that private commercial and industrial construction activity was broadly unchanged. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Equities and currencies make strong start to 2018 Asian equities and currencies have had a strong start to 2018, but we doubt that their recent performance will be sustained. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi close to high-water mark The renminbi has now reversed all of its losses against the dollar since the day of the botched exchange rate reform in August 2015. We remain upbeat about the currency’s medium-term prospects but... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has so far been exceptionally gradual, which helps to explain why there’s been next to no impact on the monetary aggregates. Meanwhile, bank lending growth has... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m increase in November’s GDP was reassuring after the near-stagnation in October, and December was probably a good month too, but we remain concerned that growth will slow in the first half... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is there more to the gold rally than a weak dollar? Our analysis shows that dollar weakness can explain much of the recent strength in the price of gold. As such, given our view that the US currency will appreciate this year, we think that those gains... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Angola grabs the headlines in early 2018 Angola’s recent devaluation has not gone far enough, and we expect that the kwanza will fall further this year. Currencies elsewhere in Africa had a pretty strong start to the year. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
