Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to slow in 2018 The Canadian economy had a pretty good year in 2017, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.9%, up from 1.4% in 2016 and only 1.0% in 2015. But last year was a tale of two halves, with exceptionally strong... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Easing financial conditions pose a problem for the Fed Despite long-term Treasury yields rising sharply this week to their highest level in four years, broader measures suggest that overall financial conditions have actually continued to loosen. Corporate... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Latest impact assessments tell us nothing new The revelation that the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) has produced an assessment of the likely impact of various Brexit options on the economy has dominated the press this week, but does not... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does India’s budget mean for gold? India’s budget for FY18/19, released yesterday, was a mixed bag for gold. On the one hand, incomeboosting measures for the rural population are good news for jewellery demand. On the other hand, the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC about to shorten its horizon? We have long-argued that interest rates would rise somewhat faster, and sooner, than markets expecting. Recent comments by Governor Carney offer tentative support to this view and suggest that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will the ECB do about rising Bund yields? German Bund yields continued to rise this week, with the 10-year yield hitting a 29-month high. Higher yields are unlikely to have much of a direct effect on the German economy, but by boosting the... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Are biofuels doomed? Biofuels have become an important source of demand for many agriculturals over the past decade. In this Commodities Watch, we argue that concerns about the environment and the diversion of food... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain Credit growth has continued to slow in some of the countries, namely Thailand and Malaysia, we had previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. However, risks... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jan.) January’s fall in the CIPS/Markit Construction PMI was entirely down to a contraction in housing construction. A breakdown of the data still suggests that activity across the construction sector is... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the newbuild premium rising? The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Debate will soon turn to tightening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations that rates will be left on hold at the upcoming policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday 7th February. However... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ underscores line in the sand The Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of bonds today for the first time since July has dampened expectations that policymakers are about to withdraw stimulus. As a result, the yen has... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report could strike more hawkish tone With the data continuing to surprise the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the upside and the Governor sounding encouraged by progress in Brexit negotiations and a bit more upbeat on the outlook... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
