Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities continue to diminish The volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has brought concerns about EM external vulnerabilities back into the spotlight. However, with the notable exception of Argentina, economies... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught in the cross-fire The prices of metals and energy commodities slumped this week in the wake of the sell-off in global equity markets and a general move out of riskier assets. Markets shrugged off data showing strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How big a risk to the economy is the market sell-off? While the sell-off in financial markets over the past week or so has been abrupt, we don’t think that it currently poses a big threat to the economic outlook. The relationship between equity prices... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will even looser fiscal policy really be good for US equities? 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transition period “not a given” This week saw negotiations resume for the first time since the EU Council agreed in December that talks could move on to a possible transition period. However, UK Government objections to some of the... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices have further to fall We think that concerns about surging supply in the US will put further downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, even if global equity markets stabilise. 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Diverging fortunes for rental growth Investment activity across the euro-zone reached a new record in 2017. However, fourth quarter activity fell in annual terms for the first time since the financial crisis. Investor appetite for retail... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The hike in Ontario’s minimum wage to $14.00 an hour on January 1st, from $11.60, had a devastating impact, with 59,300 part-time jobs lost in the first month alone, equivalent to 4.3% of part-time... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Yield falls not derailed by the slowdown in investment Solid economic growth in both Western and Emerging Europe appears to have continued into Q4. This kept expansionary activity amongst occupiers at strong levels. This, in turn, has driven vacancy rates... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in December, on the back of a (delayed) rebound in construction activity following September’s earthquakes. However, the impact of the earthquakes is... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the global equity sell-off The further falls in global equities over the past 24 hours have not left EMs unscathed, but in general EMstocks have held up better than DM stocks and there’s little evidence that falls in equities... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will this still be a Goldilocks year for the world economy? Notwithstanding the recent turbulence in equity markets, global economic growth should hold up well and inflation remain low this year. But next year, some of the shine will come off this strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
