Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Political drama masks economic recovery Attention in South Africa is firmly focused on news that the ANC will vote President Jacob Zuma out of office on Thursday. But the political drama has distracted from a marked cyclical improvement in... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash GDP (Q4) & Industrial Prod. (Dec.) An acceleration in industrial production growth was not enough to prevent a slight slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, the economic outlook is bright. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are regional banks’ capital ratios falling? If the Bank of Japan were to reverse course on monetary loosening in the near future, it would more likely be a response to worries about financial stability than high inflation. The recent... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update No surprises from cautious Riksbank Given that the Riksbank called time on its net asset purchases just one meeting ago, it was always unlikely that the Bank would make any major policy changes today. In order to test the water ahead of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian, Dutch & Portuguese GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data showed that Italy’s economy performed fairly well last year but that it is still lagging behindthe rest of the euro-zone. Despite the recent strength of the surveys, we doubt that this... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Headwinds from pollution crackdown set to ease One recent headwind to economic growth has been the government’s winter pollution crackdown in northern China, which has triggered numerous factory closures. This has had the desired impact of... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q4 2017) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole expanded by 4.9% y/y in Q4. While this is still very strong by recent standards, it’s weaker than Q3’s outturn... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore Budget: Preparing for old age Singapore’s government looks likely to raise taxes in its Budget next week to help fund the costs of its rapidly ageing population. But the country’s strong fiscal position leaves it much better... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4) & CPI (Jan.) Q4’s 0.6% rise in German GDP marked a decent finish to 2017 and growth looks set to accelerate again this year. But with inflation and wage growth still subdued in the euro-zone’s largest and arguably... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to faster wage growth The January NFIB small business survey paints an upbeat picture of economic activity, but it also suggests that the markets are right to focus on the prospect of faster wage growth this year. 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More rate rises than investors expect to drive Gilt yields higher 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A robust start to 2018 The official data suggest that the Nordic & Swiss economies recorded fairly mixed performances at the end of last year. So far, only Norway has published national accounts data for Q4. This release... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: What comes next for Jacob Zuma? Party leaders’ formal call for President Jacob Zuma to resign will further expedite his replacement by Cyril Ramaphosa. But the precise timing and nature of his removal from office remains unclear. In... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How well is Ireland's economy really performing? Ireland’s national accounts are notoriously unreliable as indicators of domestic economic activity, but alternative indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. Looking ahead, while growth... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
