The consensus on growth in Emerging Markets (EMs) remains too rosy; by contrast we think that the current cycle is now close to peaking. While we do not expect EM growth to collapse, we do think it will slow over the course of 2018 and 2019. What’s more, the fact that it is set to peak at a lower rate than in previous cycles underlines our view that potential GDP growth in EMs has slowed substantially in recent years.
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