UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jan.) January’s CBI Industrial Trends Survey painted a relatively upbeat picture, suggesting that the manufacturing sector has carried a decent amount of momentum into 2018. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Trump still pulling his punches on China trade The new US tariffs on imports of solar panels and washing machines may be aimed at China but look more like a continuation of the skirmishing of recent years than the first salvos of a trade war. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What do US tariffs mean for Asia? US tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines are likely to cause some short-term disruption in parts of the region, most notably Malaysia, Korea and Vietnam. However, the overall impact... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong end to 2017 (for most) Growth in Emerging Europe as a whole slowed in Q4, having hit a six-year high in Q3. But most of that slowdown came in the region’s largest economy, Russia, whose recovery stuttered. Weakness there... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The modest rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of January, which was slightly weaker than expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM. Assuming that the real holds up over the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s figures brought yet more good news on the current health of the public finances. And we think that stronger GDP growth will result in a more rapid improvement further ahead. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jan.) January’s increase in the ZEW measure of investor sentiment confirms that investors are upbeat about Germany’s economic prospects despite the recent rise in the euro. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi recovery on the way – but relief to be short-lived Saudi Arabia’s economy should pull out of recession this year as the drag from the oil sector fades and fiscal policy is loosened. But the relief is likely to prove short-lived and, in contrast to the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Some positive news in late 2017 Most of the data released over the past month suggested that African economies strengthened in late 2017. Q3 GDP figures showed faster growth in Ghana, Zambia, Botswana, and Rwanda – with growth in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending suffers as inflation peaks December’s retail sales figures were pretty disappointing, suggesting that the sector grew by 0.4% in Q4 as a whole, half of Q3’s 0.8% rate. What’s more, growth in non-retail spending is likely to... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will blockchain live up to its hype? Even though Bitcoin is almost certainly a bubble, the blockchain technology underpinning it has much greater potential. That said, claims that it will be “the next internet” may be overdoing it. 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What to make of Italy’s centre-right policy programme Italy’s coalition of centre-right parties has proposed a raft of sweeping policies that would cause a blow-out in the budget deficit and possibly a significant shrinking of the workforce. But in... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation remained subdued at the end of last year but the recent introduction of a new value-added tax and a raft of administered price hikes will push inflation up sharply, to more than 6% y/y... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Nov.) The further rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in November suggests that the economy regained some momentum at the end of last year. That said, the plunge in business confidence in November... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF forecasts too optimistic (as usual) We broadly agree with the forecasts for global growth in 2018 which the IMF published today. But we think it is being over-optimistic about both global and US economic growth next year. 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
