UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Nov.) The official index recorded house price growth of 5.1% y/y in November – faster than the other indices. But, consistent with elsewhere, prices in London performed the worst of all the regions. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) The fall-back in CPI inflation from 3.1% in November to 3% in December probably marks the beginning of what we expect will be a sustained downward trend over the course of 2018. Despite this, we still... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a regulatory crackdown spell the end for Bitcoin? South Korea’s announcement that it plans to ban cryptocurrency exchanges has coincided with rumours that China is planning to enforce a complete ban on Bitcoin mining. Could this new wave of... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Growth to slow from a five-year high Growth in Emerging Asia reached a five-year high in 2017 but we think that it has now peaked and will slow gradually over the next couple of years. The main headwind will come from the export sector... 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to cheer about in the January WASDE The USDA’s latest set of estimates provide little reason to revive bullish sentiment in the grains and soybeans markets. Estimates of global corn, wheat and soybeans ending stocks for the 2017/18... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements point to a tighter zinc market A surge in cancelled warrants on LME stocks can explain some of the rally in the price of zinc. That said, inventories of most other metals have risen over the last month, suggesting markets are amply... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Is the good news on US corporate earnings fully discounted? 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Rising rates set to keep market in check Our forecast for an improving economic backdrop will come hand-in-hand with rising interest rates. As a result, improving real wages and sentiment will be countered by higher mortgage costs. That will... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Moroccan dirham to avoid fate of Egyptian pound The announcement on Friday by Morocco’s central bank that it will move to a more flexible exchange rate regime has raised concerns that the dirham will follow the path of currencies in the rest of... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick thoughts on the recent jump in oil prices The economic gains from the recent rise in oil prices are concentrated among a handful of EMs (mainly in the Gulf) but the losses are spread more widely. That being said, if oil holds onto its recent... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A busy month for central banks The three major Nordic and Swiss central banks met in December and provided very different messages about the outlook for monetary policy in their respective countries. First, the Swiss National Bank... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in November suggests that the euro’s strength is doing little to hurt the region’s exports. With the global economy in good health and world trade... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Bank lending has continued to slow. However, this doesn’t seem to reflect a tightening in bank lending attitudes, which remain very accommodative. What’s more, overall borrowing by the private sector... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is investment activity about to plateau? Whether thinking about the macroeconomic context, relative pricing, or investor sentiment – it is difficult to make a case that investment activity will be notably stronger or weaker than in 2017... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
