Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Will jobs growth continue to soar in 2018? While the upbeat nature of business employment surveys suggests jobs growth should be fairly decent this year, the exceptionally strong pace of job creation in 2017 seems unlikely to be repeated. 14th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities shrug off weak Chinese imports The prices of most commodities edged higher this week. Industrial metals rallied despite Chinese trade data showing that domestic demand had weakened at the end of 2017. Meanwhile, heightened... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Majority don’t support a second referendum The possibility of a second referendum was again raised this week, but the chances of another vote happening appear slim. Meanwhile, we still expect a transitional deal to be agreed by March. But the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 2018 maybe not a slam dunk after all The tightening of financial conditions this week provided a timely reminder of the downside risks to the economy this year and next. 2018 won’t necessarily be the slam dunk that many are assuming. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Flying start to 2018 for EM equities not likely to last Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities has hit the ground running again in 2018, we think that the rally will fizzle out before long. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Conditions ripe for uplift in German industrial rents Industrial take-up in the four main German cities continues to rise. Yet prime rents in Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich have been largely unchanged for 18 months. Even so, with occupier... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline retail sales in December was in line with expectations, but the continued strength of underlying sales suggests that real consumption growth accelerated sharply in the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December will reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in March and supports our view that the Fed will ultimately increase interest rates by a more... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The small gain in national house prices in December, boosted largely by Vancouver, didn’t prevent a further slowdown in the rate of annual house price inflation to 9.1%, from 9.2%. The recent slump in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil at $70pb is not a threat to the global economy We expect oil prices to fall back from their three-year high in the coming months due to increasing supply. But even if prices stayed around $70pb, they would not endanger the global economy. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy on track for solid Q4 The recent spate of positive economic news has prompted some to raise their forecasts for Q4 quarterly growth to as much as 0.6%, double the average seen in 2017 so far. We have our doubts over... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) The latest acceleration in consumer price inflation underlines our view that markets have been underestimating the likelihood of policy rate hikes in India this year. 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Would a “flat tax” give Italy’s economy a boost? Two of the leading contenders to form a government after Italy’s general election on 4th March advocate a radical overhaul of the country’s tax code. Their plans would result in a substantial... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
