What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA?

The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good chance of a new trade deal being made eventually. That said, we wouldn’t be entirely surprised or overly concerned if, hypothetically, the US administration were to pull the plug on NAFTA. Although Canada’s economy would stumble briefly, any tariffs imposed under WTO agreements would be fairly modest on average and largely offset by some expected depreciation of the Canadian dollar.