A guide to elections in 2018

In this note we publish a guide to elections that are scheduled across the emerging world in 2018. The calendar is busier than it was in 2017 but, whereas elections this year boosted the prospects for economic reforms in some EMs (e.g. Argentina), the likelihood that elections in 2018 produce similar positive shifts is lower. The focus in the early part of the year will be on Russia. The economy is unlikely to be a major theme of the presidential election in March but attention will gradually shift to what happens post-Putin and jockeying among rival factions could have significant economic and market implications. Later in the year, elections in Mexico (July) and Brazil (October) have the greatest potential to trigger market upsets.