Taking stock of our forecasts

Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive surprises from Russia over the next year but think that growth is close to peaking in both the CEE economies and Turkey. For these countries, our GDP forecasts for 2018 are now below consensus. On the policy front, we expect further large cuts in interest rates in Russia but expect policy to be tightened in CEE next year.