Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes in June was broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month. For the second quarter as a whole... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July were a bit softer-than-expected, but overall they suggest that the economy continued to grow by over 2% y/y at the start of Q3. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are house prices in prime central London outperforming? House price growth in prime central London appears strong, but that mostly reflects gains seen in late 2016. Indeed, much like the UK as a whole, activity and price growth in the prime boroughs have... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s retail sales figures were fairly encouraging given the ongoing squeeze on consumers’ real incomes and suggest that talk of a sharp consumer slowdown has been overdone. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The recent run of chunky rises in employment is helping to cushion the blow to households’ finances from record low wage growth. The past volatility of the data suggests it’s wise not to get too... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Next recession only a few years away We expect the current economic expansion to continue for the next year or two, by which time it will be the longest on record. But all expansions come to an end, and the rise in interest rates we... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities weather the storm Commodity prices held their own in the last month amid the escalation in geopolitical tensions involving the US and North Korea. The depreciation of the US dollar helped to support prices, along with... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Persistent strength in refinery runs led to the biggest weekly decline in commercial crude oil inventories so far this year. We expect stocks to continue to fall, which should support oil prices. 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German election is Merkel’s to lose as campaigning kicks off With Angela Merkel’s party far ahead in the polls and pledging to pay off debt and cut taxes rather than increase investment, it looks set to be more of the same in Germany after September’s election... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will globally-focused US firms’ shares continue to outperform? 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts surprised on the downside in July, with a 4.8% m/m fall pushing starts to a three-month low. The drop was entirely down to the multifamily sector, with single-family starts holding... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Do valuations point to a re-run of 2007? A decade after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), some are of the view that history may be about to repeat itself, given the similarly-high valuations of equities and corporate bonds in... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales point to stronger Q2 South African retail sales figures released earlier today support our view that the country’s economy returned to growth in Q2. We expect that growth will surprise to the upside over 2017 as a whole. 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Recent rise unlikely to mark the start of a surge in spreads Credit spreads have risen as tensions between the US and North Korea have flared up. But the increase has been small and they are still low. We think that a downturn in the US economy is a more likely... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Slump in króna points to unchanged Icelandic rates At its last meeting in June, when it cut interest rates for the second time this year, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) left the door open to further rate cuts. But given that the króna has slumped... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
