US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay next rate hike until December Given the continued weakness of core inflation, we now expect the Fed to delay the next interest rate hike until December. Accordingly, while there is a chance that the statement following next week’s... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Strong growth, weak inflation We expect the current period of strong economic growth in advanced economies to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. In many countries the... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun.) The batch of strong Polish activity data for June suggests that the economy grew by a robust 4% y/y in Q2 – in line with Q1’s outturn. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bounced back in Q2 The latest South African activity data suggests that, as we had expected, growth rebounded in Q2. Slowing inflation supports our view that the SARB will cut its key policy rate on Thursday. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Looking beyond Abe The popularity of the government has suffered severely recently and there is now a real chance that Mr Abe will be out of office before the next legislative elections. A change of prime minister could... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Trade and investment to pick up the baton Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market takes RBI intervention in its stride The bond market has taken the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) surprise announcement of increased open market sales of government securities in its stride, with yields on local-currency debt remaining... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Government intervention in the coal market could backfire Coal prices have been boosted recently by a series of temporary factors. However, supply is growing quickly, which is raising the risk of a sharp drop in prices once demand drops back. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What is behind rising German industrial take-up? Perhaps against the prevailing perception, rather than retail, it has been the manufacturing sector that has been a key driver of rising industrial demand in Germany over recent years. With a... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Jun.) There was across-the-board strength in China’s June activity and investment data, which helps to explain the recent resilience of industrial metals prices. However, we still expect ongoing policy... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While June’s unexpectedly large drop in CPI inflation is unlikely to prove a turning point, it will nonetheless help to keep the MPC’s hawks in the minority. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Low volatility doesn’t mean EM equities are bound to fall The volatility of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has plunged, as the index has climbed steadily to an all-time high in local currency terms. But these developments need not inevitably unwind... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s dip in German investor sentiment presumably reflects the recent tightening of financial market conditions in response to the ECB’s talk of policy normalisation. But we do not take this as a... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
