UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Any changes to exchange rate regime likely to be cosmetic Another widening of the renminbi’s trading band is now a distinct possibility, following hints in a PBOC-run newspaper earlier this week. But such a move would make no difference to the trajectory of... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ireland GDP (Q1) The fall in Ireland’s GDP in Q1 is not a major concern. The data are notoriously unreliable as a measure of underlying activity, and other indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. We... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Informal economies pose statistical challenges A new IMF paper highlights the large role the informal sector plays in African economies. It casts further doubt on official growth figures, and suggests that debt-to-GDP figures are painting a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) The widening of the euro-zone’s trade surplus in May adds to signs that GDP growth may have accelerated in the second quarter. And in contrast to the situation last year, we expect net trade to boost... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Cheers for silver on hold Despite relatively strong demand from industrial applications and dwindling mine supply, the price of silver has recently fallen to the lowest level since April 2016. In this Metals Watch, we look at... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates to fall further than most expect in Chile & Peru Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate by another 25bp, to 3.75%, and we expect at least one further quarter point reduction this year. Elsewhere, the Central Bank of Chile left its policy... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s driving the divergence in confidence? The gap between consumer and business confidence has widened further in recent months as rising profits have made firms increasingly optimistic while subdued wage growth has kept households... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will others follow the Bank of Canada? The Bank of Canada may end up reversing the rate hike it made yesterday. But central banks elsewhere are likely to begin raising rates over the next year or two and are less likely to reverse course... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to continue hinting at 2018 taper We expect the ECB to renew its hints of future QE tapering at its forthcoming meeting, despite the modest tightening of financial market conditions that such hints have caused already. We still see... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging down our inflation & interest rate forecasts for Brazil Around half of the drop in Brazilian inflation over the past year has been driven by a collapse in food inflation, which is now close to bottoming out. But there is also growing evidence that the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market outlook is subdued The economy appears to have regained some momentum in the second quarter. By contrast, the housing market has cooled. And with high house prices increasingly choking off demand and no scope for looser... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is industrial rental growth due an upgrade? Unlike the rest of the commercial property market, rental value growth in the industrial sector has recently regained fresh momentum. There are also no signs that demand is set to ease, or that... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
