Commodities Weekly The focus will be on US policy This week started on a positive note with news that both the official and unofficial China manufacturing PMIs turned up in June. However, a bumper increase in US June non-farm payrolls on Friday... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing slump going from bad to worse Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data continue to show home sales floundering. More importantly, home... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam rate cut fuels financial risks Vietnam’s decision to cut interest rates today risks fuelling a further surge in credit growth, increasing the risk of a sharp rise in non-performing loans further down the line. We think the rate cut... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Headline employment increased by a stronger than expected 45,300 in June, compared to the consensus estimate of a 10,000 gain, but wage cost pressures remain subdued. Accordingly, there’s nothing in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target The recent drop back in core inflation, even as the unemployment rate has fallen further, adds to the evidence that the Phillips curve has flattened. The reduced sensitivity of inflation to shifts in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June) The 222,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which was well above the consensus forecast at 179,000 and even our own more upbeat 200,000 estimate, is another illustration that the real economy is in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico, Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexican inflation rose further above target in June, but there are signs in the breakdown that it is close to peaking. Meanwhile, data also released today showed that inflation in both Brazil and... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still on track for a stronger Q2 Despite the dip in this week’s Markit/CIPS PMI surveys for June, they still provided some reassurance that growth will pick-up in Q2. But this week’s hard data for the industrial and construction... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Distressed sales are still distorting house prices The Case-Shiller index has reported a sharp easing in seasonally-adjusted house price growth in the early stages of this year. But there are good reasons to think that the legacy of the surge in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly External pressures mounting in Pakistan The “devaluation” of the Pakistani rupee earlier in the week is a reminder of the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency fall much... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (May) Today’s flurry of activity data casts some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in GDP growth in Q2 and adds to the likelihood that rates will stay on hold at the next MPC meeting in August... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Jun.) China’s foreign exchange reserve figures for June suggest that, having eased markedly since the start of the year, capital outflow pressures remained muted last month. We think this shift could prove... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) June’s 1% drop in house prices cooled the headline annual rate of growth to 2.6%. With buyer demand still falling and credit conditions unlikely to loosen, the outlook for house prices is subdued. 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
