OPEC Watch OPEC output surges again Another surge in production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. Looking ahead, the group expects non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate next year. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) The further drop in Indian consumer price inflation in June will increase the clamour for policy loosening. But with inflation now close to bottoming out, we still expect rates to stay on hold over... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s new national inflation series The publication of a national consumer price index by Argentina’s statistics office is a further step towards overhauling its previously discredited inflation data. The short back series limits its... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jun.) The value of UK commercial property investment activity rose for the second month on the trot in June. But while encouraging, there are also good reasons to think that this is not the start of a much... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp rise in euro-zone industrial production left it at its highest level since September 2008 and bodes very well for GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (May) May’s LFS survey was mixed. Job creation improved and the unemployment rate fell to another multi-decade low. However, the squeeze on real household incomes worsened. The implication is that the... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) Despite May’s labour market figures suggesting that the economy is close to full employment, the continued weakness of wage growth provides some ammunition to the more dovish members of the Monetary... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1 & Q2) Despite a string of political shocks, South African consumer confidence was higher in Q2 2017 than it was over most of 2016. This supports our view that the worst is over for the country’s troubled... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Jun.) The fall in Czech headline inflation last month was the result of weaker fuel inflation, but core inflation appears to have risen further above the central bank’s target. As a result, we think it’s... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.) While the Westpac measure of consumer confidence nudged up in July, it remains below the long-run average and is consistent with a further slowdown in real consumption growth ahead. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is Germany’s surplus a global problem? Germany’s current account surplus has been quite stable in recent years and has not, therefore, been a major drag on global demand. That said, in the unlikely event that it significantly eases up on... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are US equities actually undervalued? It is two decades since the Fed compared the yields of US government bonds and equities in its semiannual report to Congress, the next instalment of which Janet Yellen will deliver tomorrow. A... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
