Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to keep interest rates at 0.50% The Bank of Canada’s new-found optimism in the economy means that there is a risk it could raise interest rates very soon, but we don’t think a rate hike next week to 0.75%, from 0.50%, is a foregone... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the manufacturing sector heading for another downturn? The prospect of a renewed downturn in manufacturing activity is a concern, particularly with activity in the mining sector also likely to be hit by lower oil prices. Despite the weakness of some of... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise further A reassessment of the prospects for monetary policy has contributed to a significant, and similarly-sized, rise in 10-year government bond yields in the US and Europe over the past month. We expect... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors cautious about secondary retail assets in Spain The yield spread between prime and secondary Spanish retail property has widened recently. With a slowdown in consumer spending on the cards, a cautious approach to secondary assets makes sense. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Regional slowdown approaching a trough The slowdown in the Middle East and North Africa should bottom out in the second half of this year and growth is likely to strengthen in 2018-19. In the Gulf, the hit to headline GDP growth from OPEC... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy There is still considerable uncertainty over whether Congress will vote to approve a new healthcare bill but, if it does, the short-term effects on the economy would probably be mildly positive and... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (May) The second consecutive m/m expansion in the Chilean IMACEC economic activity index suggests that, after a dire Q1, GDP growth probably picked up in Q2. We think the economy should continue to recover... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in core inflation confined to Germany While euro-zone headline CPI inflation fell to 1.3% in June, the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose from 0.9% to 1.1%. This left it above the 0.8% average recorded... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Market moves unlikely to prompt ECB to delay QE tapering The euro’s rise has not yet been sharp enough to cause a significant tightening of monetary conditions and we doubt that it will dissuade the ECB from tapering QE next year. But a further appreciation... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Consumer spending set to pick up in Q2 The surprise contraction of consumer spending in Q1 was largely due to distortions caused by the growing popularity of “Black Friday” sales. We expect that spending picked up in Q2 as these faded. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Activity disappoints High house prices continue to hold back mortgage approvals and transactions. The latest fall in buyer enquiries suggests that activity growth will continue to disappoint in the coming months. But as... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) June’s UK Markit/CIPS report on services still suggests that GDP growth has reaccelerated in Q2, after the sharp slowdown experienced in Q1. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May) & Final PMIs (Jun.) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales suggests that household spending growth picked up in Q2. And the final euro-zone Composite PMI for June implies that the wider economy also had a strong second... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Domestic problems start to mount A pick-up in exports should help lift growth in Emerging Asia (excluding China and India) to a seven-year high this year, but mounting domestic headwinds mean growth is likely to slow in 2018. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
