US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.8 in June, from 54.9, leaves it at its highest level in nearly three years and supports our view that annualised GDP growth has rebounded quite strongly... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Cycles start to turn in the BRICs The growth outlook for major EMs is starting to diverge. While there are signs that a slowdown is now underway in China, cyclical rebounds lie ahead in India, Brazil and Russia. 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is China’s recovery faltering? China’s stimulus-driven recovery is over. Key risks, in particular around the currency, have dissipated, so the coming slowdown should be mild. But the economy’s structural problems are not being... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Bond link will struggle to attract foreign investors The Bond Connect scheme launched today creates a new channel for foreigners to invest in China’s onshore bond market. If previous steps to expand market access are any guide, however, the move will do... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Final Manuf. PMI (Jun.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged in May, survey indicators point to strong employment gains ahead. Nevertheless, the high degree of slack in some countries suggests that it will be... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some strength at end-Q2 After diverging in May, the official and unofficial June manufacturing PMIs for China told a similar story of somewhat stronger activity in the final month of the quarter. However, the bigger picture... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.) June’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI suggests that growth in the sector accelerated in Q2, following the slowdown in Q1. However, it raised some questions about the sustainability of this faster rate... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output? South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector struggled towards the end of Q2. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator that has become... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST likely to cause some near-term disruption The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was finally rolled out in India over the weekend, over a decade after its conception. There are bound to be some teething problems in the coming weeks and months, but... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update LDP will have to respond to crushing defeat in Tokyo While the ruling LDP’s severe defeat in local elections in Tokyo is not necessarily a bellwether to developments at the national level, we think that the government may respond with a larger... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to step up the pace of easing caught the consensus off guard, but supports our view that the policy rate will be cut by more than most expect this year. We... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The Nordic and Swiss PMIs strengthened in June, pointing to faster manufacturing growth. The Swedish survey suggests that inflation will fall, probably reflecting energy effects. But we still expect... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) & Turkey CPI (Jun.) Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Europe suggest that growth in Central Europe remained robust at the end of Q2, while Turkey’s economy strengthened. Meanwhile, the sharper-than... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields still over a year away from a floor Early indications suggest that prime yields fell again in Q2, which is likely to make property valuations look even more stretched. While this may increase the perception that yields cannot fall... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
