Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economic slowdown underway The slowdown in Kenyan GDP growth in Q1 supports our view that growth in 2017 as a whole will be weaker than most expect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Bond yields rise on prospect of tighter global monetary policy Bond yields across the Nordic and Swiss economies increased in June, in line with global market moves following major central bank speeches that prompted investors to bring forward their expectations... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will rising bond yields continue to weigh on equities? We think that this week’s sell-off in government bonds sets the tone for the second half of the year. Nonetheless, we don’t expect a further rise in their yields to prompt a major correction in equity... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending reliant on saving less While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Despite a slight drop in housing-related activity, GDP increased by 0.2% m/m in April, suggesting that the economy began the second quarter on a stable footing. But given the downswing in home sales... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gloomy French fiscal outlook leaves Macron with work to do The warning from France’s fiscal watchdog that the country’s budget deficit is set to exceed 3% of GDP this year and next puts pressure on Emmanuel Macron to find extra savings in order to avoid... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1) Saudi Arabia’s economy recorded its first outright contraction since the global financial crisis in Q1, driven by the impact of oil production cuts. The contraction is likely to deepen over the rest... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: yield curve inversion doesn’t necessarily signal recession There is little evidence that the inversion of Mexico’s government bond yield curve means a recession is imminent. But it chimes with our view that economic growth is likely to soften over the... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? ECB President Draghi’s speech earlier this week prompted investors to re-assess the outlook for monetary policy. They now seem to expect the Bank to raise interest rates around the middle of next year... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Public debt set to rebound Efforts to curtail off-budget borrowing by local governments have recently helped slow the rise of China’s public debt ratio. But a further rise in government debt is almost certain in future as it... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.), German & French Sales (May) June’s fall in euro-zone consumer price inflation reflected energy effects. But with core inflation only edging up, the ECB will proceed cautiously in normalising policy. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) While Q1’s National Accounts confirmed that quarterly GDP growth slowed sharply at the start of 2017, there are signs that growth has re-accelerated. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has the FPC tightened mortgage regulation? The marginal tightening of the mortgage affordability test announced in this week’s FSR is unlikely to have a direct, restrictive effect on the supply of mortgage finance. But it may have indirect... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will rising food prices help stem supermarket rental falls? Rising food prices are not a sign of growing pricing power for supermarket chains. Rather they are another sign of increased pressure on margins, implying that the unprecedented two-year decline in... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE labour markets tightening Strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the first half of the year has been accompanied by further evidence that labour markets are tightening. Unemployment rates have fallen to record... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The latest consumer confidence survey suggests that the squeeze on real earnings is starting to weigh on sentiment. However, this shouldn’t prevent consumer spending growth from holding up relatively... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
