Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tighter US sanctions would have limited impact Legislation passed by the US Senate to tighten the sanctions regime on Russia provides further reason to think that medium-term growth in Russia will be extremely weak. But the near-term economic... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May) May’s retail sales figures show that recent rises in inflation continue to weigh on the growth in sales volumes. However, the strength of sales values suggests that, when the impact of the fall in the... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Apr.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed a touch in April, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. We think that net trade will provide a small boost to GDP growth in 2017. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) We think that the easing of inflation in Nigeria, which slipped to 16.3% y/y in May, will pave the way for looser monetary policy this year. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: the Gulf’s weak spots Recent comments from the IMF and ratings agencies have put the focus back on the weak balance sheets of the Gulf’s two smallest economies, Bahrain and Oman. We have warned for some time that both... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB keeps policy unchanged The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold and pledge continued currency intervention if needed reflected the fact that inflation is still very low. With price pressures likely... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The much stronger than anticipated rise in employment in May and the fall in the unemployment rate to a four-year low will go some way to quashing growing talk of the chance of another interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in the first quarter means that GDP growth this year is likely to be closer to 3.0% than our previous forecast of 3.5%. While that would still be a fairly decent... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is austerity over? While the general election result may prompt the Government to slow down the planned pace of fiscal tightening a bit, it would be wrong to conclude that austerity’s days are numbered. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the G7 heading for a new growth record? In each of the past three years, all of the G7 group of advanced economies have posted positive GDP growth. We expect these expansions to continue until at least 2019, which would be the third-longest... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude inventories resumed their downward trend last week, but gasoline stocks increased on the back of low demand and high refinery output. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Negative sentiment weighing on prices It has been a dismal few weeks for commodity prices. Prices have generally fallen amid signs of somewhat slower Chinese growth and concerns about subdued growth in oil demand and still-high stocks... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Interest rate divergence should favour EM local currency bonds 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in selling sentiment won’t cure low inventory levels The share of households seeing now as a good time to sell has exceeded the share seeing now as a good to buy for the first time since records began in 2010. But, past rises in selling sentiment have... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the UK election mean for the euro-zone? The UK election is unlikely to have major adverse near-term effects on the euro-zone as damage to UK demand from political uncertainty may be offset by looser fiscal policy. A softer Brexit could... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (May) The continued weakness of core inflation, which fell to a two-year low of 1.7% in May, presents a dilemma for Fed officials. It won’t stop them from hiking interest rates later today, but it increases... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
