US Economics Weekly Fed’s dilemma getting worse The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but faces a growing dilemma over its plans for the rest of the year. Core inflation has dropped back recently, while... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in April underlines the fact that, even if the decent growth in the manufacturing sector continues, persistent weakness in mining output means... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Apr.) April’s sharp fall in French industrial production was disappointing in the wake of yesterday’s poor trade data and dims hopes for a strong pick-up in GDP growth in Q2. But German data continue to be... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The impressive 54,500 increase in employment in May, which included a big increase in full-time jobs, will no doubt prompt louder calls for the Bank of Canada to hurry up and raise interest rates. But... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The collapse in Brazilian inflation to a fresh decade low of 3.6% y/y in May paves the way for further, albeit smaller, cuts in the Selic interest rate in the coming quarters. Despite the ongoing... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s new inflation forecast The ECB revised its inflation forecast down this week, but we doubt that this has meaningfully changed the outlook for monetary policy. After all, the change was small, and largely reflected tweaks to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strong pipeline to weigh on Bucharest office rents In recent years, strong occupier demand has helped prime office rents in Bucharest hold up in the face of a healthy development. But by end-2018, completions totalling 18% of existing stock are... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Apr.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the General Election result, a flurry of UK activity data has also been released, which has cast some doubt on the likely strength of the bounce-back in... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: “Softer” Brexit now more likely, but risks remain The Hung Parliament resulting from the General Election on balance probably increases the chances of a “softer” form of Brexit, although remaining in the single market indefinitely does not appear to... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans face hurdles Renewed talk of the government ramping up its privatisation drive is welcome, but its aim of raising INR725bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies this year still looks unrealistic. In... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: monetary policy easing cycle has further to run Peru’s central bank unexpectedly left its policy interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, but the accompanying statement hinted at further easing and we think additional rate cuts are likely. We expect the... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China credit bubble is biggest risk facing Emerging Asia Many of the risks facing Emerging Asia’s economies have receded in recent months. The key exception is the continued rapid build-up of debt in China. A bursting of China’s credit bubble would have... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Hung Parliament: what happens now? With no party gaining a majority in the General Election, the UK looks set to face a period of uncertainty about the outlook for policy, Brexit and the possibility of another election. It is still... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a stronger Europe mean for commodities? It now appears likely that the European economy will record the strongest growth in nearly a decade in 2017. While Europe cannot compete with China or the US in terms of the likely impact on... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (May) Norwegian inflation resumed its decline in May, and we think that the fall has further to run. So we still forecast one interest rate cut by the Norges Bank later this year. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will the BoJ continue to scale back its JGB purchases? The Bank of Japan’s JGB purchases of ¥4.3 trillion in May were the lowest since it stepped up purchases in October 2014. If overseas yields rebound in coming months as we expect, we will probably see... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
