UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (May.) House prices rose a little in May, ending a four-month streak of flat or falling prices. But subdued buyer demand suggests that they will rise only a touch over the remainder of 2017. 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Apr.) As April’s surprise drop in Swedish industrial production was probably due to temporary factors, we expect output to rebound in May. And while the hard data have been weaker than the surveys suggested... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about Rest of UK offices? During the three quarters since the referendum, Rest of UK office rental values have done relatively little to counteract the yield-driven falls in capital values seen after the vote. However, survey... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The small 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in the first quarter won’t worry the RBA too much as some of it was due to the temporary influence of the severe weather. Nonetheless, we believe that GDP growth will be... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s electoral court ruling: a primer Brazil’s electoral court has reconvened this week to rule on whether illegal campaign donations made during the 2014 presidential election invalidate the Rousseff-Temer ticket. In this Update, we... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Precious metals outperform The prices of precious metals benefitted from a weaker US dollar and heightened safe-haven demand in May. In addition, markets are pricing in only a limited Fed tightening over the next eighteen... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack OPEC disappoints the oil market Oil prices fell at the end of last month as OPEC disappointed markets by simply rolling over its output cuts for another nine months, rather than deepening them as well. However, this should still be... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing activity stalls due to low inventory Despite a strong economic backdrop, housing activity has stalled since the start of the year. Mortgage applications for home purchase have done no more than hold their ground since their post-election... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Activity and prices falling The latest data show a fall in house prices, mortgage lending and transactions. In some ways, a gentle fall in prices is positive, helping to narrow the gap between prices and income more quickly... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Spillovers from Venezuela’s crisis limited to smaller economies The deepening crisis in Venezuela could have significant spillovers to some Central American and Caribbean countries such as Nicaragua and Cuba. But the impact on larger countries in the region... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would a rebound in China’s reserves weigh on Treasury yields? 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Low savings rate limits prospects for Spanish spending The weak outlook for real disposable income growth in Spain, combined with the fact that the savings rate is already low, suggests that household spending growth is unlikely to rebound following Q1’s... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) After seasonal-adjustment, CoreLogic reported that house price gains stabilised at a robust 0.8% m/m in April. A lack of homes for sale is acting to dissuade some buyers from entering the market... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian headline inflation was unchanged in May, but the fall in core inflation to below the central bank’s target supports our view that the policy interest rate will be lowered again, from 9.25% to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economic recovery levelling off Turkish GDP figures due next week are likely to show that the recovery levelled off in the first quarter at around 3.5% y/y. But there are signs of a healthy rebalancing of the drivers of growth. 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: In recession even before Gordhan sacking New data show that South Africa’s economy was already contracting before the latest political drama. While we think that things will get better later in the year, risks to our above-consensus growth... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
