Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Does election uncertainty influence the housing market? Despite frequent claims to the contrary, there is little if any tangible evidence that housing market participants alter their buying and selling behaviour in the run up to a general election. 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to keep policy loose to support inflation’s rise The Swiss National Bank will once again stress after its meeting on 15th June that it remains prepared to act to prevent any significant renewed appreciation of the Swiss franc. Granted, the recent... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What are equity markets telling us about property? It’s not hard to find bearish views on the prospects for UK commercial property. But neither real estate equity prices, nor equity market volatility provide compelling support for the bears. And with... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic rates to remain on hold for now Ahead of next week’s meeting, today’s soft GDP data are unlikely to concern the Central Bank of Iceland too much. The fact that last month’s interest rate cut has done little to stem the króna’s... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors are probably right to shrug off change to ECB’s guidance 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB eases loosening bias, but rate hikes a distant prospect The ECB removed its reference to possible interest rate cuts today, judging that the threat of deflation has passed. But it is still far from convinced that inflation is on a sustained path towards... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What might the surge in new retail supply mean for Warsaw? Shopping centre development in Warsaw is picking up pace. While the city’s growing wealth and low vacancy rate mean that it can accommodate more retail floorspace, we have nudged down our rental... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears over Qatar’s dollar peg misplaced The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbours has sparked fears that it may be forced to devalue the riyal, but we think this is highly unlikely. In particular, the country’s strong balance... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Mexican inflation rose further above target in May and, while we expect another 25bp hike in the central bank’s policy interest rate later this month, both inflation and interest rates are probably... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A guide to election night Our Election Preview, published 1st June, contains our detailed analysis of the potential impact of the election. This UK Economics Update focuses on the results process and short-term implications of... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy struggled at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy remained weak at the start of Q2. Next week’s retail sales figures will give us a clearer indication of whether crucial consumer-facing... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Surge in US stock market unlikely to continue While we still think that corporate profits in the US will be squeezed by a tight labour market, we now think that the S&P 500 will tread water this year and next, rather than fall back significantly... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) PGM output had a strong start to the year but the latest figures suggest that it has already started to wane. We expect production to fall in the remainder of the year as the platinum price treads... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew in Q1 at a faster pace than previously indicated, despite a slowdown in consumer spending. And with activity surveys pointing to a pick-up in GDP growth in Q2, the euro-zone... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) Buyer enquiries fell in May, ending five months of broadly flat demand. But with long-term price and sales expectations firmly in positive territory, the survey seems consistent with our view that the... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
