Global Markets Update Little evidence of a bubble in technology shares Some investors are bound to be feeling nervous after Friday’s near-2.5% drop in the NASDAQ 100, given the rout in technology shares during the bursting of the dot com bubble. However, the technology... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (May) After a subdued month in April, UK commercial property investment activity picked up in May. It was also encouraging that, at least in this months’ figures, there were tentative signs of improving... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) The sharp drop in Indian consumer price inflation in May is likely to raise further questions about the RBI’s reluctance to loosen policy. But we think the central bank’s unwillingness to cut rates is... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets stabilised in May. We expect that they will remain subdued over the remainder of the year. 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What do political developments mean for Italy’s economy? On the face of it, the Five Star Movement’s poor showing in recent local elections bodes well for pro-euro parties and Italy’s economy. However, the chance of an early election has fallen, so... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government pressure risks undermining RBI credibility The Indian government is treading on dangerous ground with calls for monetary easing and other moves that could put the independence of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) at risk. A loss of credibility... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s majority bodes well, but reform won’t be easy Results of the first round of French parliamentary elections suggesting that Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche will achieve a huge majority bode well for the French economy and for EU... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q1 2017) The much sharper-than-expected increase in Turkish GDP in Q1, of 5.0% y/y, has prompted us to revise up our GDP growth forecast for the year as a whole to 4.3%. At the margin, today’s figures make it... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) We wouldn’t read too much into the fall in machinery orders in April as the figures have not been a good guide to business investment recently. In fact, the rebound in capital goods shipments suggests... 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Peak has passed for EM export growth Following a five-year high in March, EM export growth lost a little steam going into the second quarter. We expect growth will gradually slow over the coming months. 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK political turmoil doesn’t mean market mayhem We doubt that political uncertainty after Thursday’s UK General Election will itself have a big effect on the markets. However, there could be significant moves if the endgame is a Labour-led... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will political uncertainty weigh on the economy? There are reasons why the political uncertainty triggered by the hung Parliament result won’t weigh too heavily on GDP growth. After all, the UK economy has proved resilient to recent bouts of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Investor sentiment continues to sour Oil prices fell again this week on persistent concerns that the market remains oversupplied. Most metals prices also slipped, despite China’s May trade data showing robust growth in commodity imports... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market on the brink The housing market appears on the verge of a downturn and will negatively impact economic growth from the second quarter onwards. Although Vancouver home sales have rebounded in recent past months, we... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Political uncertainty clouds the outlook for policy With the General Election resulting in a hung parliament, there is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook for demand, Brexit and policy. As a result, the MPC is even more likely to sit firmly on its... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
