US Data Response Employment Report (May) & Internat’l Trade (Apr.) With the unemployment rate dropping to a 17-year low, the Fed will continue to hike interest rates even though trend employment growth has slowed and core inflation remains stubbornly below target. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production was better than expected, but only partly reverses the steep drop recorded in March. As things stand, it is difficult to envisage the sector... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How stretched are the valuations of EM equities? Emerging market equities have continued to climb over the past month. Their rise has been partly fuelled by an increase in earnings. Valuations have also picked up, although they still do not look... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is the US leaving the Paris Agreement significant? The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change will not alter our forecasts of US demand for energy commodities, since the agreement was non-binding and President Trump had no... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Inflation will add to economic headwinds in 2017 Kenyan inflation will remain above-target for the duration of 2017, prompting the CBK to hike its key policy rate from 10.00% to 10.50%. Elevated inflation and tighter policy will weigh on growth. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Weak GDP and inflation data unlikely to sway RBI The weakness of the latest GDP and inflation data has reignited talk that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may loosen at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th June. However, more timely indicators suggest... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture. Banks in Romania and Hungary – which have been among the weakest in Emerging Europe over the past decade – are returning to health, and... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (May) The Construction PMI for May provided a welcome surprise on the upside. And from a commercial property perspective, it provided the first indication that, in line with our view, rental value growth is... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy rates to remain low for longer than consensus expects The region’s rate cutting cycle has come to an end, but with inflation set to remain fairly subdued, interest rates are likely to remain low for some time yet. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (May) The final PMIs for May point to a further pick-up in growth in the euro-zone, led by Germany, and to steady or accelerating growth in most other advanced economies. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery loses a bit more steam May’s PMI data point to a further softening in the recovery of emerging market manufacturing. Nonetheless, the survey still points to expansion, just at a slower pace than at the start of the year. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell for the eighth consecutive week as demand from refineries increased and net imports fell. Gasoline stocks were also drawn down as consumption picked up. 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US equities We have revised up our end-year forecast for the S&P 500, as the index’s surge to above 2,400 since President Trump was elected has left it well above our previous projection. Nonetheless, for now at... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Are we too bearish on the prospects for lead prices? Despite the recent rally in prices, we remain bearish on the long-term prospects for lead usage. While increased demand for start-stop systems in cars could provide some support to prices over the... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to tweak its forward guidance At its meeting on 8th June, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance, dropping the references to lower interest rates and expanding QE. But Mr Draghi will want to avoid stoking expectations of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
