Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil output cuts cause Saudi economy to stagnate Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stagnated in March as oil production cuts continued to trim headline growth. Encouragingly, though, the non-oil economy strengthened further and... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Consumer Spending (Apr.) Strong gains in retail sales and “core” household spending in April suggest that private consumption is on track for another solid increase in the second quarter. Meanwhile, employment growth remains... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in big frontier oil exporters The latest data suggest that, in aggregate, GDP growth in the largest frontier oil-exporting economies has started to pick up. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 3.4% y/y in Q1, the fastest pace of... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer fallout contained, but yield curve steepens Brazil’s financial markets sold off sharply in the immediate aftermath of the latest corruption allegations against President Temer, with equities, the currency and bonds all coming under pressure... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Little scope for participation rate to keep rising While the overall participation rate has continued to trend down, there has been a sharp rebound in the share of 25-54 year-olds in the labour force. This has added 1½ million additional people to the... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor US Treasuries look overvalued, given policy outlook A lot of attention has focussed recently on the possible effect on US government bonds of a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. While we expect the reduction to be gradual, we don’t... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil tanks on OPEC disappointment The big story this week was the 5% drop in the oil price on Thursday, despite the fact that OPEC extended its production cuts for nine months. It appears that investors were expecting deeper cuts... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Tightening in polls heightens risks The significant narrowing in the Conservatives’ poll lead over Labour has raised the risk of a more fractious Brexit. Meanwhile, comments from the ECB saw the debate over the extent to which UK... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) & Q1 GDP (2nd Est.) The weakness in April’s durable goods figures suggest that the 7.2% annualised increase in equipment investment the first quarter is unlikely to be repeated in the second. Nevertheless, allowing for a... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rebound Given the recent ominous signs of a downturn in Toronto, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will be able to do much to prevent a correction in the housing market. The Bank of Canada only has limited... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s currencies outperform Currencies in Central Europe have been the best performing in the emerging world over the past month and we think that they should generally fare well in the coming years. 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Is the end of QE (finally) in sight? The US Fed is likely to raise interest rates in June and to begin a very gradual process of balance sheet normalisation before the end of the year. But other major central banks are a long way behind... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) For the third consecutive quarter, the consensus forecast for rental and capital value growth for the next two years rose, thus bringing them closer to our own. 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC tightens the renminbi’s leash The change in the renminbi fixing mechanism announced today shouldn’t rattle markets, not least because it appears to be an attempt to strengthen rather than weaken the currency. It suggests though... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
