Europe Economics Update Will the ECB tighten prematurely again? The ECB is edging towards ending asset purchases and raising interest rates. But there are good reasons to think that it won’t repeat the mistake that it made in 2011 of tightening policy too soon. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: notes from the ground We were in Dubai last week for meetings with clients and local contacts. In this Update, we summarise three key takeaways from our visit. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) Mexican inflation continued its upward trend in the first half of May, hitting an eight-year high of 6.2% y/y, but the recent stability of the peso means it probably doesn’t have much further to rise. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Growing number of overvalued markets in all sectors Higher government bond yields and further falls in commercial property yields in Q1 mean that property valuations have begun to look increasingly stretched. Whereas 23% of the markets we cover looked... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is low volatility in the Treasury market a bearish signal? There hasn’t been much action in the Treasury market since yields shot up last November after Donald Trump was elected US president. As is the case for the US stock market, though, low volatility... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Downgrade underlines fiscal risks in debt build-up Today’s ratings downgrade reveals little that investors didn’t already know about credit growth in China and the risk that it requires the government to accept a big increase in its debt load in... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further thoughts on PMIs versus GDP figures The conflicting signals given by business surveys and national accounts during the first few months of the year mean that we cannot have absolute confidence in either. But we suspect that the PMIs... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The continued fall of South African inflation – which dropped to 5.3% y/y in April – supports our view that the Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate later this year. 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (May) Despite slipping in May, the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator continues to point to very strong economic growth. With the labour market therefore set to tighten further, we expect stronger wage... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update What could Trump’s budget mean for energy commodities? Donald Trump’s budget proposal is unlikely to dramatically alter the energy and oil markets, even if Congress does not significantly temper them. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales recorded their largest monthly decline in over two years in April, reversing nearly all of the gains seen since the start of the year. Given the extremely low numbers of existing homes... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (May) Preliminary surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions in advanced economies are in good shape and point to a rebound in economic growth in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates, but hints that cuts are coming Nigeria’s central bank held its key rate on hold again, but we expect that policymakers will cut rates later this year as inflation slows and the economy remains weak. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
