Capital Daily Low volatility doesn’t always herald a collapse in stock prices 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: no signs (yet) of major tightening in financial conditions It’s still too soon to say how Brazil’s latest political drama will play out, but the key point for the economy is that the crisis has not yet caused a sharp tightening in financial conditions. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch WASDE projections a mixed bag for agriculturals On the 11th May, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first projections for the 2017/18 season. In this Commodities Watch, we discuss the USDA estimates and what they mean for our... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Apr.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 6.4% y/y last month, up from 4.3% y/y in March. However, in month-on-month terms, production fell in... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Sensex continues to surge Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting a fresh all-time high in mid-May. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s rate hike likely to be a one-off The Egyptian central bank’s surprise decision late last night to hike its benchmark interest rate by 200bp, to 16.75%, appears to the result of pressure from the IMF. The move is likely to be a one... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth in Q1 was due in part to a 3%-pt hike in VAT at the start of this year. We expect Q1 to be the bottom, but the risks to our below-consensus GDP growth... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on OPEC Commodity markets largely shrugged off soft activity and spending data out of China this week. Indeed, speculation around the outcome of next week’s OPEC meeting kept oil prices well supported. At the... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher stocks reflect the slowdown in China’s activity Stocks generally rose over the last month, which we think is consistent with broader macroeconomic data showing a slowdown in China’s activity in April and the recent weakness in most metals prices. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Manifestos expose subtle differences on Brexit The release of the Conservative Party and Labour Party manifestos this week exposed some differences in their stances towards Brexit. However, the broad contours of each party’s desired Brexit outcome... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Do voters have a real fiscal choice this time? The release of party manifestos this week highlighted that, unlike in recent elections, the two main parties offer voters a real fiscal choice this time. Labour would borrow significantly more than... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment still weak The economy has grown strongly over the past few quarters and business confidence has risen. On closer examination, however, business investment has fallen to historically low levels, partly because... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
