Commodities Update Commodities lose their mojo It has been a torrid few weeks in global commodity markets, for the most part characterised by investor selling. Signs that China’s economy slowed abruptly in April weighed on the prices of most of... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update London office development cycle past its peak London’s office development pipeline has been a source of concern to many for some time now. But a comparison with vacancy rates supports our view that it has not been excessive. It also seems to be... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What explains the recent drop back in core inflation? The recent weakness in core CPI inflation in March and April has forced us to revise down our inflation forecasts for the next couple of years. Even if the recent drop in the price of cell phone plans... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech markets unfazed by ongoing political drama Financial markets in the Czech Republic have, for the most part, shrugged off the various twists and turns in the political crisis that has gripped the country over the past couple of weeks... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The bigger than expected 1.0% m/m surge in industrial production in April was mainly due to an encouraging 1.0% m/m gain in manufacturing output. (Consensus forecast was 0.4% m/m.) 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts surprised on the downside in April, dropping by 2.6% m/m and taking starts back to where they were a year ago. While the building permit data suggest the chance of a recovery in May is... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global credit conditions supportive despite slowdown in US Credit growth has slowed sharply in the US in recent months, due to weaker demand for bank loans from households and non-financial companies. However, in most other advanced economies it is rising... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Change in Riksbank target unlikely to shift policy yet The Riksbank has stated that its new inflation tolerance band will have no effect on policy. But with some Board members growing increasingly concerned about the effects of ultra-loose monetary policy... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Mar.) House prices fell in March, as annual house price growth London and its surrounding regions slowed particularly sharply. That said, with demand rising gently and prime prices recovering, it is too... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), Trade (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) The second estimate of euro-zone Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery maintained a decent pace, and growth is set to pick up further. But with inflation pressures subdued, we doubt that the ECB will... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What would make policymakers change course? The weak activity and spending data published yesterday add to evidence that growth in China is starting to slow. We think the deceleration in the economy will be gradual and expect official efforts... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) The sharp rise in CPI inflation in April mainly reflected a number of factors that won’t be repeated and we think that this brought inflation close to its eventual peak. 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s business climate improving, but challenges remain Egypt’s new investment law is a positive step towards improving the dire business environment. But greater efforts, particularly in raising domestic savings, are needed if investment is to reach the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Credit growth is the strongest it has been in years but continues to fall short of growth in bank deposits. Meanwhile, the volume of external lending dipped slightly in Q4 but remains close to a... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan statistics: Painting a flattering picture? The lead-up to Kenya’s general election in August is coinciding with rising scepticism in the country about the quality of official economic figures. In this Watch, we will lay out why we are... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
