Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q1) & Dutch GDP (Q1) The first estimate of Italian Q1 GDP showed that the economy grew more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. With growth likely to remain fairly subdued, the economy remains vulnerable, perhaps most... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2017) The stronger-than-expected batch of Q1 GDP data from Central and South Eastern Europe means that risks to our above-consensus 2017 growth forecasts now lie to the upside. These figures also raise the... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) & Finnish GDP (Q1) Norway’s recovery gathered pace in Q1, and forward-looking indicators suggest that this should continue. That said, we doubt that this will have much of a bearing on monetary policy. Meanwhile... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Widening trade deficit not a cause for concern India’s monthly trade deficit widened to its highest level in over two years in April. But this was in large part due to temporary factors. Looking ahead, with imports of key commodities such as gold... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with investors and local contacts in Mexico City. In this Update we summarise four quick takeaways. 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is the Bank of Japan’s work done? Japan’s economy has been performing well recently and we expect growth to exceed most estimates of its sustainable rate this year. But inflation remains low and, with wages still barely rising, there... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities forge ahead again Emerging market (EM) equities have had another excellent month, with the MSCI EM Index rising 4% to its highest in almost two years. However, we would not be surprised to see it slip back later this... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Mar.) March activity data confirmed that Peru’s economy slowed sharply in Q1 and, while growth should pick up over the coming months as the temporary drag from severe floods eases, the weak start to the... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Quick thoughts on the OPEC extension Oil prices jumped today following the announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia that they favour extending the current production cuts until March 2018. Although this is not a game-changer for the oil... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumer slowdown now underway Growth in consumer spending has begun to lose pace in response to the pick-up in inflation that is underway. This has been seen most acutely on the high street, with survey measures of spending on... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed Greek recession adds to bailout risks Greece’s return to recession in Q1 has highlighted the damage done by stalled bailout negotiations and suggests that the Government’s newly-updated economic forecasts are far too optimistic. This will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Longer OPEC production cuts to boost oil prices An extension of OPEC’s output cuts until the end of March 2018 should be more than enough to bring stocks down to their five-year average and push prices up, even if US output continues to pick up and... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Platinum: Short-term pain, Long-term gain Given our outlook for US monetary policy this year and next, we expect the weakness in the price of platinum to persist through most of 2017-18. However, further ahead, we think that platinum will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Questions still hang over accuracy of IP data The revisions and rebasing of India’s wholesale price and industrial production data align them with other indicators used in India and make them more useful for international comparisons. But while... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The return of Goldilocks Japan’s economy probably recorded the fifth straight quarter of growth in Q1, the longest streak since 2005. The unemployment rate is at multi-year lows and corporate profit margins at record highs... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
