UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Net lending to the property sector fell slightly in April. Yet, this weakness probably reflects liquidity issues in the investment market rather increased risk aversion amongst lenders. It is also... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) The resilience of consumer confidence supports our view that household spending will still grow at a decent pace this year despite the squeeze on real income growth. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q1) The Danish economy made a good start to 2017, posting another decent quarterly expansion in Q1. Although the composition of growth was not that encouraging, the outlook is more positive. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update When will energy inflation peak? We expect energy inflation to peak next quarter and then drop back, providing another challenge to the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reach a 2% inflation target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Watch As good as it gets for Chinese steel Chinese steel prices have been on a roller-coaster since the start of this year, as investor sentiment on the outlook for demand waxed and waned. In this Metals Watch, we take an in-depth look at the... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response CB Cons. Confidence (May), Income & Spending (Apr.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in May is nothing to be worried about because the index is still at a very high level. Taken together with the personal... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC deal renewed, but Saudi nods towards “exit strategy” OPEC’s decision this month to roll over its oil output cuts displayed a rare sense of cohesion from the cartel, but there are signs that de-facto leader Saudi Arabia is seeking an eventual end to... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) Disappointing activity data of late has not prevented headline rates of house price inflation from picking up again in the year to March. We expect house price inflation edge up further in the second... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low food inflation keeps EM inflation near eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation remained close to an eight-year low in April, largely reflecting a slump in food inflation in major economies such as China and Brazil. While this weakness will soon reverse in... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (May) May’s declines in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate fell back from the ECB’s target of close to 2%. With core inflation subdued across the region, we doubt... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery to be stronger than consensus expects Despite a gradual shift in the consensus over the past couple of months, we still think that markets are underestimating the extent to which inflation and interest rates in Russia are likely to fall... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (May) May’s Economic Sentiment Indicators remained strong across Central and Eastern Europe, suggesting that regional growth stayed above 4% y/y in Q2. These figures support our above-consensus growth... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) Despite softening in May, the EC’s business and consumer surveys suggest that eurozone economic growth picked up in Q2. But with inflation expectations falling back, there is little indication that... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish GDP (Q1), Retail Sales (Apr) & Swiss KOF (May) The slowdown in Swedish quarterly GDP growth in Q1 masked a strong rise in domestic demand. And with April’s pick-up in retail sales boding well for growth in Q2, underlying inflation should continue... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
