Commodities Update Four reasons why the weakness in oil prices won’t last long The recent weakness in oil prices is largely due to concerns over persistently high US stocks and growing production there. However, the headline US crude stocks number is a little misleading and US... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe’s confidence in the economy grows The upbeat tone of the Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the Reserve Bank of Australia has become less worried about low inflation and that further interest rates cuts have become much less... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer’s reforms inch forward in face of mounting opposition Despite mounting public opposition, President Temer’s reform agenda is inching ahead in Brazil. Labour market reforms have passed the lower house, but the real test lies ahead with pension reform. The... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A rising tide lifts all boats Survey data suggest that economic momentum among the major euro-zone economies has converged in 2017. Indeed, in April the spread between the Composite PMIs for Germany, France, Italy and Spain was... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Macron’s labour reforms now look more achievable Centrist presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his proposals to overhaul the French labour market in last night’s head-to-head television debate with his rival Marine Le Pen. While his... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak Q1 global growth just a blip Global economic growth slowed in the first quarter, but we expect it to rebound in the second. The US economy looks set to regain momentum as consumption seems almost certain to pick up. Meanwhile... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Q1 slowdown should prove temporary We doubt that the sharper-than-expected slowdown in quarterly GDP growth from 0.7% in Q4 to 0.3% is a sign of things to come. Indeed, output surveys point to an acceleration in growth at the start of... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC raises prospect of rate hike this year The Czech MPC’s statement accompanying today’s rate-setting meeting was generally quite dovish, but it does looks like the Council intends to start raising interest rates, albeit very slowly, this... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1) In contrast to yesterday’s commercial construction PMI, today’s RICS survey showed that construction activity picked up, rather than stagnated, in Q1. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM survey data overstating the pace of recovery The EM business and consumer surveys seem to have overstated the strength of the hard EM activity figures over the past year or so. That said, the fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in April provides... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The very modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $43.7bn in March, from a revised $43.8bn, confirms that net trade provided a small boost to first-quarter GDP growth. 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Although export volumes grew by 2.3% m/m in March, that followed a big decline the month before, with exports increasing only trivially in the first quarter as a whole. This poor export performance... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: a bright spot in the Gulf The recent recovery in the UAE’s non-oil sector is set to continue over the coming years, supported by easing fiscal austerity, robust global economic growth and a step up in preparations for the 2020... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Jump in Milan office rents unlikely to be sustained Prime office rents in Milan recorded their biggest quarterly gain since 2008 in Q1, with a lack of quality space a key driver. But with completions starting to rise, we don’t expect this to be... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
