Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Apr.) General government figures for 2016 revealed that most euro-zone countries’ fiscal positions improved last year, although some countries still fell short of their targets. Meanwhile, timelier central... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial’s outperformance a sign of trouble ahead? Previous periods of industrial outperformance have all marked the end of commercial property upturns. But there is no direct causality in this observed correlation. In any event, industrial occupier... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) The March CoreLogic house price index offered no evidence of a let-up in house price growth. After seasonal-adjustment, the 0.9% m/m gain was the same as that seen in February. That pushed the annual... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Is the strength of EM currencies set to last? Although they have generally appreciated in recent months, few EM currencies appear much stronger than their “fair value”. This feeds into our view that most will hold up fairly well over the next few... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Focus turns to debt relief measures for Greece Today’s agreement means that EU officials can now turn their attention to the question of debt relief for Greece. One way or another, a deal is likely to be done to allow Greece to meet repayments due... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Apr.) April’s Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector made a strong start to the second quarter and provides hope that this strength should be maintained in the coming months. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.), Final Man. PMI (Apr.) March’s small fall in the level of euro-zone unemployment came as something of a disappointment and suggests that, despite the growing strength of the economy, wage growth will remain subdued and keep... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s April PMI, which came in at just 44.7, provided an early sign that the sacking of Pravin Gordhan dealt a serious blow to confidence. Other business confidence figures released later... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s activity slowed in April Both the official and unofficial April manufacturing PMIs for China surprised on the downside. There are now clear signs of cooling domestic demand, which will weigh on commodity demand. That said... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the primary budget be in surplus in 2020? Japan’s budget deficit has fallen sharply in recent years but improvements are now likely to slow, with the result that the government will struggle to achieve its target of a primary budget surplus... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs weakened in April, but still point to faster manufacturing growth. And the Swedish survey suggests that inflation there will rise, supporting our view that the Riksbank erred in extending its... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that manufacturing in Central Europe remained strong at the start of Q2, but highlight that the recoveries in Russia and Turkey are still fragile. 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) India’s manufacturing PMI held steady at a multi-month high in April, supporting our view that the economy is on a firmer footing after the hit to activity from demonetisation. Looking ahead... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s low inflation fears fade The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the eighth meeting in a row today and we doubt it will be in a position to raise rates until at least 2019. There is still a risk... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The inflation worm has turned The recent rises in underlying inflation suggest that the period of extremely low inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has come to an end. Underlying inflation, which excludes the temporary... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
