Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Currencies grab headlines as economies improve April was another dramatic month for African currency markets. The rand fell against the US dollar after the sacking of Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan prompted a ratings downgrade, before clawing... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary estimate of GDP (Q1) With consumers feeling the adverse effects of sterling’s post-referendum fall, the economy has started to cool. But we doubt this is the start of a sustained slowdown. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation put it back in line with the ECB’s target, but the rise reflected the timing of Easter and we doubt that it will lead the Bank to alter its view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) & BBA Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase fell in March and that subdued demand was, in turn, reflected by a modest dip in house prices in April. The main reason for this slowdown is high house prices... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) March’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with subdued core inflation. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean equities reach a six-year high Chinese trade restrictions and mounting tensions with North Korea have failed to dent the rally in South Korea’s equity market, which is nearing a record high. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Apr.) April’s fall in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer leaves it still pointing to a pick-up in annual GDP growth to around 2%. But with inflation extremely low and given signs that the strong franc is... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Consumer confidence edged down this month, but the big picture remains that consumers are weathering the squeeze on their spending power from higher inflation well. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q1, 1st est.) Provisional Q1 GDP data for France, Spain and Austria suggest that euro-zone economic growth accelerated at the start of 2017. And the slower growth in France in Q1 should prove temporary. 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Strong credit growth not benefitting economy Private sector debt is growing at the fastest pace in at least two decades, but this boom in credit is not doing much to support demand in the economy. The upshot is that economic activity should hold... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Mar.) Despite sharp falls in “core” household spending and industrial production in March, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% in Q1. However, there is still no evidence that the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to continue signalling possible rate cut The Norges Bank is almost certain to leave monetary policy unchanged at its meeting next week. After all, the Bank will not be updating its forecasts, and there has been little to change policymakers’... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trump’s tax tweaks don’t alter our cautious view of US equities President Trump’s latest proposal for tax reform does not provide us with a reason to alter our forecast that the S&P 500 will end this year lower than it is now, as margins are squeezed by rising... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
