US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) The homeownership rate edged up in the first quarter of 2017, but a recovery has been held back by the low number of homes available to buy. In turn, the shortage of existing homes is, in part, down... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Nothing phenomenal to buoy US equities in Trump’s “new” tax plan 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna office capital values close to peaking A jump in the development pipeline means that the outlook for office rental growth in Vienna is now weaker than we previously thought. And with valuations starting to look a little stretched, we think... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to continue tightening; others will be slow to follow Despite the pick-up in global growth in the past few months, most of the world’s major central banks are likely to leave policy highly accommodative this year. The ECB may tweak the language in its... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery topping out Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM recovery has taken a breather in recent months, following early signs that growth in China has started to ease. Activity in Latin America and Emerging Europe... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB preparing to tweak guidance in June Given the shift in Mr Draghi’s language at today’s press conference, we think that in June the ECB will remove the reference to “lower” interest rates from its forward guidance. While this would end... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls get back on track We estimate that non-farm payroll employment recovered from last month’s weather-related blip with a robust 185,000 increase in April. The unemployment rate probably ticked back up to 4.6%, but this... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets weather another storm The relative resilience of South African financial markets in the face of the latest political turbulence has prompted us to revise our end of year rand forecast from R15/US$ to $14/US$. Markets... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The 0.7% m/m rise in durable goods orders in March was weaker than expected, but confirms that business equipment investment enjoyed a strong first quarter. 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish CPI (Apr.) April’s increases in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate rose back to the ECB’s target of close to 2%. But the increase partly reflected the timing of Easter... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q1) Today’s survey showed no signs of any softening in occupier demand, development activity or interest levels from investors. So the main message seems to be that property market participants appear... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr.) After a dismal quarter for the high street in Q1, the strength of April’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey is welcome news and helps to allay fears that real consumer spending growth is slowing sharply... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Apr.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator suggests that euro-zone growth accelerated further at the start of Q2. But with consumers’ inflation expectations falling back, we do not expect the ECB to signal... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The rise in the Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe this month suggests that regional growth was probably close to 4% y/y at the start of Q2. These figures support our above... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank dissenters fail to prevent QE extension Only the Riksbank Governor’s casting vote secured today’s unexpected QE extension. While we have pushed back our expectation for the first repo rate rise in Sweden, we still think that the Riksbank... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
