Ruble strength on policymakers’ radars

The continued strength of the Russian ruble this month has started to raise concerns among policymakers, with President Putin hinting that some form of action might be taken to stem the rise. At the margin, this makes the non-consensus 50bp interest rate cut that we expect at tomorrow’s central bank meeting more likely. Further ahead, we still think it’s likely that rising oil prices will push the ruble higher in the coming years.