US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Latest commodity price falls don’t alter economic outlook for EMs The broad fall in commodity prices this week has weighed on EM commodity currencies, but it doesn’t do much to alter the economic outlook either for EM commodity producers or EM commodity consumers. 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How much relief would a Macron victory provide? After rallying at the start of 2017, the gold price has fallen back over the past couple of weeks, as some of the geopolitical risks that had lent it support earlier in the year have subsided. A... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The meagre 3,200 increase in employment in April, which included a big decline in full-time jobs, was a disappointment and will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s view that policy needs to remain highly... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Geopolitics and OPEC dominate oil prices Geopolitical tensions were the main driver of oil prices in the first half of the month as the US fired missiles at Syria and ramped up rhetoric around North Korea. However, the market quickly... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The robust 211,000 increase in non-farm payroll employment in April confirms that the more modest 79,000 increase in March was just a weather-related blip. With both the official and the broader U6... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2017 World Gold Council Demand Trends Global gold demand fell by 18% y/y in Q1 2017, but this was from a high base a year earlier. In comparison to Q4 2016, demand was stronger as geopolitical concerns prompted investor buying. Subdued... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will Macron galvanise the French economy? Centrist liberal Emmanuel Macron looks set to comfortably defeat populist eurosceptic Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s final round of France’s presidential election and might even manage to secure a... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month – and in core inflation in particular – reinforces our view that the central bank’s easing cycle has much further to run. We expect another interest... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market treading water With both mortgage lending falling and house price growth decelerating, the latest data suggest that the housing market is treading water. Looking ahead, a solid economic backdrop and resilient house... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Should global investors be worrying more about China? Growing evidence that China’s economy is slowing has triggered falls in domestic equity and global commodity markets this week but there has been no repeat of the broad global sell-off that... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Mar.) Chilean economic activity data for March suggest that the economy avoided entering a technical recession in Q1, albeit only by the smallest of margins. And there are tentative signs that the economy... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 1992 or 2008? Updated Recent news on the economy might suggest that the effects of the pound’s post-referendum depreciation will be closer to those seen after the pound’s fall in 2008 – which raised inflation and squeezed... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly TPP “minus US” – is it worth the bother? Even without the US, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could still provide a decent boost to the four countries from Emerging Asia included in the deal. The risk is that without the carrot of access... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Q1 slowdown to keep MPC hawks at bay Weaker economic data and a rise in the pound is likely to silence some of the tentatively hawkish members of the MPC and mean that May’s Inflation Report strikes a relatively dovish tone. Nonetheless... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Mar.) March’s Swedish production data suggest that GDP growth picked up further in Q1. And as stronger activity is consistent with a rise in inflationary pressure, we think that the Riksbank will have to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
