Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.)

First quarter GDP data from Mexico confirmed what we have long suspected – that the survey data have been overstating the weakness in the real economy. In fact, the economy grew at a reasonably healthy rate in Q1 and, despite the lingering risks on NAFTA, we are revising up our GDP forecast for 2017 from 1.8% to 2.2%. Our original forecast was already above the consensus – our new one puts us right at the top of the analyst range.