Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit divergences should soon start to narrow The broad stability in EM credit growth in recent quarters masks a large divergence between individual countries, with an acceleration in lending in China offset by a contraction in Brazil and Russia... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Mar.) China’s activity and investment data for March were robust and point to a strengthening of metals demand in the first quarter. However, the prospect of a steadily tightening policy environment over... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia in no rush to hike rates despite further rise in inflation Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to a new eight-year high in March, but we see little prospect of a rate hike any time soon. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) & Inflation (Final, Mar.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in February but probably narrowed in Q1 as a whole. With higher energy prices explaining much of that narrowing, trade volumes may still have boosted GDP in Q1... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Slowing inflation in South Africa (which dipped to 6.1% y/y in March) supports our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates later this year. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Geopolitics takes centre stage Investor sentiment towards commodities has remained broadly positive over the last month, despite rising geopolitical tensions. It could be that signs of an improving global economic outlook are... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: after the referendum… Turkey’s constitutional referendum last Sunday has resulted in a small bounce in local financial markets, with some of the biggest moves coming in short-term local currency bonds. That could be a sign... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s forecasts reflect a bright economic outlook The IMF’s latest projections for global growth, published today, are in line with ours (using official figures for China) and point to healthy global GDP growth of about 3½% in the coming year or two. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Although larger than expected, the 6.8% m/m drop in starts in March was not significant given the instability of the monthly data. Looking ahead, high home-builder confidence and a chronic shortage of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m increase in March industrial production was almost entirely due to a weather-related 8.6%m/m bounce back in utilities output. After a near-record warm February, when heating demand fell... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Snap election won’t derail the economy Theresa May’s surprise announcement of a snap election on 8th June adds another element of nearterm political uncertainty as the UK heads into formal Brexit negotiations. However, we doubt that this... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising food inflation set to delay interest rate cuts Rising food inflation is likely to dissuade Peru’s central bank from cutting its policy interest rate for the time being. But with the economy slowing and core price pressure low, an easing of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from emerging markets essentially ceased in March. Outflows will probably pick up again later this year, but they are likely to remain weak by recent standards. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan and the US sign a free trade agreement? High-level discussions with the US today have revived talk in Japan of a bilateral trade deal that could in principle generate sizeable productivity gains for Japan and make up for the US abandoning... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
