DM Markets Chart Pack We continue to take a bearish view on Treasuries We still take a bearish view on Treasuries. This is because we think that the tight US labour market and its knock-on effects on inflation will push the Fed into faster tightening than markets are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague office rental growth prospects revised upwards Upgrades to the outlook for employment in the Czech Republic for 2017 and 2018 mean that office vacancy rates will stay close to current lows, driving rental growth of 3.5% in 2017 and 1% in 2018. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What does the mixed US Employment Report mean for the markets? The Russian ruble weakened on Friday – despite a jump in oil prices which would usually have supported the currency – following a US missile strike in Syria. (See our Emerging Europe Update, “First... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth looking very uneven The uneven incoming data reinforce our view that the economy hasn’t turned the corner. Exports continue to misfire, which isn’t encouraging for hopes of a recovery in business investment. Meanwhile... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness of auto sales less alarming than it seems The recent weakness of new motor vehicle sales has been causing a bit of alarm, but there are good reasons to think that fears of a sudden collapse in demand will prove to be overblown. In any case... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The further gains in employment and hours worked in March are positive signs for growth in labour income. That supports our view that household spending contributed strongly to first-quarter GDP... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A brighter outlook, and higher growth forecasts Upbeat economic data for the first quarter of the year have prompted us to raise our forecasts for growth in several economies. But underlying wage and price pressures remain exceptionally low outside... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation hit a fresh seven-year high of 5.4% y/y in March, up from 4.9% y/y in February, but the recent rebound in the peso means that it is probably now close to peaking. Much still depends... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointing 98,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March will be seized upon by the usual suspects as confirmation that the US economy is poised for collapse, but the truth is this is mostly... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much did growth slow in Q1? The survey data have provided evidence that the slowdown in Q1 has not been too stark. And although the official figures have been weak in Q1 so far, temporary factors have been at play suggesting... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks’ gold demand wanes The latest data show only a slight increase in central banks’ holdings of gold in February. We anticipate that this weakness will persist throughout 2017. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest drop in Brazilian inflation leaves it only a whisker above the BCB’s central target and probably seals the deal on a larger 100bp cut in interest rates at next week’s Copom meeting. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the US strike on Syria mean for commodities? The potential for further escalation of the conflict in Syria has boosted the prices of oil and gold today. But taking a step back, OPEC supply cuts and growth in demand should be the main drivers of... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for Russia Russian equities and its currency have fallen following US airstrikes on Syria early this morning, reflecting fading hopes that US-Russia relations will normalise and that sanctions might be lifted... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
