UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Feb.) February’s data on industrial production and construction supported over evidence that the economy has lost a little momentum in Q1. But growth is likely to have remained fairly solid. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian consumers facing growing headwinds Consumer spending has grown at a steady if unspectacular pace across Emerging Asia over the past few years, comfortably outperforming other EM regions. Spending in the region should continue to grow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Mar.) China’s foreign exchange reserves were broadly stable last month, suggesting that the recent easing of capital outflows has allowed the People’s Bank to step back from FX intervention. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) Annual house price growth on the Halifax index slowed as prices held flat for the second month running. And, with real wage growth squeezed and demand growth paused, we think house price inflation... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: inflation risks mean interest rates cuts are unlikely Peru’s central bank kept its policy interest rate on hold at 4.25% and, while the accompanying statement struck a dovish tone, the risk of a surge in inflation means rate cuts are unlikely. That said... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Monetary policy to remain loose for longer While the economy should continue to grow at a robust pace, price pressures will strengthen only slowly. And with the sales tax hike scheduled for end-2019 clouding the outlook, the Bank of Japan is... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s sharp rise in German industrial production and wider trade surplus help to reconcile the recent gap between the hard data and surveys, and imply that GDP rose sharply in Q1. But the French... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has the weakening in retail spending got further to run? The outright fall in retail sales values in February raises fresh concerns about the health of the retail sector. Admittedly, some of the recent weakness is due to temporary factors. But there are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update After “taper tantrum”, is “reinvestment rage” next? The US Treasury market has shrugged off the news in the latest FOMC minutes that the Committee may begin to alter its reinvestment policy later this year. Nonetheless, we still expect a reduction in... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some wider implications of a rebound in shale activity Demand for tubular steel and distillates in the US is likely to receive a boost from the ongoing revival in oil drilling activity. This will be a factor supporting prices, at least in the US market. 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five non-consensus calls on EMs Earlier this week we published our latest Emerging Markets Economic Outlook, which outlined our core macroeconomic and financial market forecasts for 2017-19. In this Update, we summarise five key... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CZK moves to managed float, further appreciation likely Despite what looks like heavy FX intervention by the Czech National Bank upon the exit from the koruna ceiling policy earlier today, comments from Governor Rusnok suggest that the Bank will tolerate... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the credit data signalling a slowdown? Aggregate measures of credit growth in advanced economies have slowed sharply in the past month or two. But this is almost entirely due to weakness in the US, which we do not expect to last. What’s... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Housing in energy-producing states not yet out of the woods As oil prices have seen a modest pick-up, so has employment growth in many energy-producing states. But, given the lags between changes in the labour market and its impact on the housing market, as... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Venezuela’s latest political crisis Venezuela has hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past week, with the Supreme Court first annulling the National Assembly before then partly reversing its decision. However, a change... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
