US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) Very low inventory levels and steady demand combined to drive up house prices in February. A 0.9% m/m gain after seasonal-adjustment was the fastest rate of growth since April 2013. Anyone looking to... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February was smaller than expected but still leaves the sector on course to make a positive contribution to GDP over Q1 as a whole. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM stragglers start to pick up speed There has been a sharp turnaround in EM growth in recent months and we expect growth in several major economies, including Brazil and Russia, to surprise on the upside over the next year or so. But... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New economic zone won’t match Shenzhen, Pudong China’s government recently launched a new economic zone near Beijing that it is billing as the most important project of its kind since the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone and Shanghai’s Pudong New... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for bonds and currencies We have revised some of our forecasts for developed market government bonds and exchange rates to take account of current market levels and our latest thinking on monetary policy. We now project a... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Mar.) The dip in March’s headline construction PMI was entirely down to the residential sector. By contrast, activity in the commercial sector improved, albeit only modestly. 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s retail sales data suggest that consumer spending growth slowed in Q1. That said, high consumer confidence and firms’ strong employment intentions suggest that household spending growth won... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s PMI data show that the recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors continued at the end of Q1. There’s little sign that the fall in oil prices last month has hit sentiment. Meanwhile, the surveys... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A subtle shift in the RBA’s rhetoric The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was always going to leave interest rates at 1.5% today, but there are some subtle signs that the Bank is becoming more concerned about the outlook for the labour... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The rebound in the trade surplus is mainly due to the reversal of the distortion caused by Chinese New Year that suppressed the surplus in January. But with commodity prices having started to edge... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence slips, but still relatively positive The latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, despite concerns about a potential slowdown in housing, businesses still expect faster economic growth this year. Nevertheless, pressures on production... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The latest PMIs suggest that global manufacturing activity remained strong in March, adding to evidence that the global economy is in good shape. Surveys also suggest that pipeline inflationary... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing ends Q1 on a strong note March’s PMIs suggest manufacturing in the emerging world rounded off the quarter strongly. In particular, conditions improved in Brazil, Turkey and India. The main exception was Korea, where business... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Another weak first quarter and ‘soft’ versus ‘hard’ data The strength of most sentiment and activity surveys, despite the apparent weakness of first-quarter GDP growth, has led to a number of claims that we should put our trust in the so-called ‘hard’ data... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A month of two halves After a weak start to the month, the prices of both gold and oil subsequently rebounded, despite the Fed’s decision to hike interest rates. The accompanying dovish statement lowered expectations of... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in March is a little disappointing given the recent strength of the regional surveys, but still leaves the index close to a two-year high and suggests... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
