Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s sharp slowdown in euro-zone inflation was partly driven by temporary factors that will reverse in April, but the big picture is that inflation is now on a downward trend. So we expect the ECB... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Ger. & Spa. Retail Sales, French Cons. Spending (Feb.) Today’s expenditure data gave mixed messages on the health of the euro-zone’s consumer sector. While higher inflation does not appear to have hit German consumer spending in Q1, spending growth may... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian bond yields set to come down Russia’s bond market hardly moved in reaction to the central bank’s surprise re-start of its easing cycle last week. However, we think the policy rate will ultimately be lowered much further than... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) House price inflation cooled in March, a trend that we expect to continue. However, with the economic and interest rate backdrop supportive, the immediate risks of a house price correction seem low. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) Consumer confidence appears to be holding up well, providing another reason to think that the likely slowdown in spending growth this year won’t be too severe. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Cabinet reshuffle rocks markets Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle has hit market sentiment towards South Africa. While the move will have an immediate political impact, the negative economic effects may be less significant than some... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Are Asian countries manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report this month which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. No country in Emerging Asia meets the criteria... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey GDP (Q4) Turkish Q4 GDP growth came in at a much stronger-than-expected 3.5% y/y, and has prompted us to revise up our forecast for this year from 1.8% to 2.5%. However, in contrast to the consensus, we don’t... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Durable goods consumption set to rebound A range of policy decisions that encouraged consumers to bring forward purchases of durable goods contributed to keeping consumer spending weak in recent years. But with the replacement cycle now... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lessons from Rajasthan’s reforms Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s term in office so far. However, there are signs of improvement at state level, most... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) Today’s PMI readings suggest that China’s economy continued to perform well in March, though we doubt the current strength will be sustained for much longer. 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter mortgage lending rules raise chances of more rate cuts Today’s announcement that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has introduced tighter mortgage lending rules will go some way to addressing the RBA’s concerns about the overheating housing... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (Feb.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover in Q1 while the labour market tightened further. However, very weak underlying price pressures highlight that the Bank of Japan... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leader of the free (trade) world? President Xi Jinping is heading to the US next week presenting himself – in contrast to President Trump – as a champion of free trade. Foreign firms operating in China tell a different story. In this... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
